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A rebalancing of international relationships demands Australia be nimble and nuanced in our foreign policy.

It is unsurprising that Australian politicians are debating the consequences of US tariffs for the .

The that has followed the commencement of trade wars since US President Donald Trump took office highlights the fragility of international cooperation.

Viewed from a realist perspective, international cooperation has, in any case, always been a mirage. Expressed simplistically, realists believe that countries do whatever most enhances their relative power: if something resembles cooperation, it can only be a confluence of each country pursuing its national interests.

The more liberal-thinkers amongst us, on the other hand, point to international law and institutions – such as the United Nations, and the World Health Organization – or indeed, ANZUS and – as evidence that mutually beneficial international cooperation is possible.

US-led international law and institutions have, in fact, represented a complicated mixture of liberalism and realism; of vision backed by power.

The world is looking decidedly more realist since President Trump re-took office: more power, less vision.

This may not be all bad. Some correction to established international relationships may well have been in order.

The US is no longer an ascending world power. Given the enormous US debt, it may well have become reasonable for other major economies to contribute a greater proportion of the running costs of the United Nations and World Health Organization.

The US’ longstanding partnership with Europe was due for some rebalancing by which Europe shouldered increased responsibility for its own security.

And it was time for the US to place increased focus on its own internal needs, on repairing its internal societal fracturing. Although, there are strongly held views as to whether the approach taken by President Trump is actually repairing or deepening the societal divide in the US.

A timely wake-up call for Australia

On Australia’s part, we have long needed a wake-up call short of full-blown crisis, to more clearly pinpoint any aspects of policy in which our own national interests and those of our closest allies do not wholly overlap.

And Australia had likely taken free trade too far if it meant we did not have the sovereign capabilities we needed to protect ourselves from supply chain disruptions.

But history shows that a world run only along hard realist lines is ultimately unsustainable.

The international institutions established after World War II were designed to avoid both the economic nationalism of the 1930s and the temptation evidenced throughout history to resort to war as a means of gaining the political upper hand.

If the US abdicates all leadership of international law and institutions, there are other contenders with the requisite mix of realist power and vision.

Australians often allude to China challenging the rules-based international order, but China in many instances works diligently through international institutions to achieve its policy preferences and often references international law in justifying its actions.

, led by China – while not fully united – has been working to replace the US dollar as the world’s reserve currency, to establish some alternative international institutions, and to rebalance the world economic order.

One thing Australian leaders can be certain of in our global context for the foreseeable future is unpredictability.

More than ever, Australia needs leaders who know their international history, who will be able to articulate Australia’s national interests in a nuanced and clear way while minimizing domestic political point-scoring, and for Australia to remain strongly engaged in our region and nimble in the face of shifting geopolitical alignments.

As members of the general public, we need to accept that Australia has entered an era in our foreign policy in which there are no easy choices.  

Shirley Scott is a Professor of International Law and International Relations in the School of Humanities & Social Sciences at ¹úÃñ²ÊƱ Canberra.